A new study highlights how global fires are on the rise due to climate change – but how human actions and policies play a crucial role in controlling regional influences.
According to a study by an international team of researchers led by East England (UEA), man-made climate change is a ‘global push’ to increase the risk of wildfires.
Fire Climate – The ideal dry climate for wildfires is increasing in climate change, which increases the likelihood of large-scale wildfires by burning landscapes more frequently and exposing them to heavy fires. Predicts the impact of climate change on fires in the future, with each additional degree causing a wildfire.
Climate models show that in some parts of the world, such as the Mediterranean and Amazon, the frequency of fires in modern times is unprecedented compared to recent historical climates, due to global warming around 1.1 ° C.
After all, according to the current trend, if global temperatures reach 2-3 degrees Celsius, this will happen in all regions of the world.
Climate patterns show that some of the most recent and severe wildfires in Western USA, Australia, and Canada are likely to occur as a result of climate change.
The article, published today in the journal, features scientists from the UEA, Swansea University, UK Exeter and Met Office University, the CSIRO Climate Science Center in Australia, the United States, Germany, Spain and colleagues. Netherlands.
It explores the relationship between climate change – past, present and future – and fire control, including climate, but also human activity, land use, and plant productivity, which have a significant impact on fire and distribution. On the landscape.
Lead author Dr. Matthew Jones of the Tyndale Center for Climate Change in the United States: These effects generally increase in forest fires.
“Clarifying the link between forest fires and climate change is crucial to understanding the threat of future fires. Communities can push or halt the growing fires caused by climate change, and regional measures and policies can prevent or mitigate wildfires.” They can be useful to reduce.
“Finally, as the world warms up, we are fighting a growing fire. Double efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and keep temperatures below 2 degrees Fahrenheit[2 ° C]are the most effective measures we can take to prevent global fires.
The authors emphasize that humans have a significant regional impact on wildfire activity in the tropics. For example, they have increased fires and reduced the natural resilience of some ecosystems, particularly in the tropical deforestation zones of Amazonia and Indonesia.
In contrast, in recent decades, the Savana and grasslands of Africa, Brazil, and northern Australia have reduced the spread of wildfires by converting land to agriculture and dividing natural vegetation through landslides.
Historically, forests in the US, Australia, and Mediterranean Europe can reduce unwanted fires or extinguish wildfires. However, the authors argue that in areas where this fire is a natural part of ecological activities, this could have unintended consequences.
For example, Policies that significantly excluded fires from the Western landscape in the 20th centuryTh Centuries have resulted in forests that are now overcrowded with plant fuels, which have led to more severe fires in recent droughts. The use of low-intensity fires in poor weather conditions is increasingly being used as an essential tool to control fuels by facilitating natural ecological functions.
The main findings of the analysis include:
- In 1979-2019, the average annual global warming season increased by 14 days (27%). Globally, on average.
- A.D. Since the 1980s, fires in most parts of the world have increased dramatically. Increases have been observed, especially in western North America, Amazonia, and the Mediterranean Sea. Due to the warmer climate, more climate change has occurred in the Mediterranean and the Amazon.
- At 2 degrees Celsius, this is the case in the tropical forests of Siberia, Canada, Alaska, and the western United States. At 3 degrees Celsius, all regions of the world will experience unprecedented fires.
- Globally, the area of fire has been reduced by about a quarter – or 1.1 million square kilometers.2 – 2001-2019. Most reduction – 590,000 km2 – About 60-70% of the fires are in African Savana, where annual fires occur. Environmental / regional human influences have reduced the burning rate in tropical Savannah, which is associated with low grassland productivity (increasingly dry) during wet seasons.
- Significant increases have been observed in the burnt area, especially in the highlands. For example, the area of fires has increased by more than 1,600 miles[21,400 km].2 (93%) in eastern Siberian forests and in 3,400 km2 (54%) in the forests of western North America (Pacific Canada and the US combined).
Dr. Christina Santin, co-author of the University of Swansea and the Spanish National Research Council, adds:
“We hope that this study will help address deep-rooted and conflicting perspectives on climate change and land management.”
The study reviewed 500 previous publications and re-analyzed modern databases based on satellite observations and models. Global coverage of all regions includes climate and combustion trends, continental macroeconomics, and key regional ecosystems for fire activity or impact.
For these regions, future changes in fire conditions will be assessed by policy appropriate temperature increases at 1.5 ° C, 2 ° C, 3 ° C and 4 ° C, which will provide insight into how the success or failure of climate policies relate to the risks. A wildfire that we must live with in the future.
Matthew Jones and others ‘Global and Regional Trends on Fire Climate Change’