The forecast for the likelihood of wildfires released on July 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicted that in July it will rise above the “normal” level this summer in Alaska, Texas, northern California, eastern parts of Washington and Oregon. In August, parts of Montana, the Black Hills, and the Northern Plains will be added to the list. Hawaii will be above normal for the next four months.
The NIFC fire probability text and maps shown here represent the cumulative projections of the ten geographic region predictive services units and the national predictive services unit. Additional graphics from other sources are included.
less:
- Excerpts from the NIFC Narrative Report for the next four months;
- Additional monthly graphical prospects for NIFC;
- Three-month temperature and precipitation forecast from NOAA;
- drought monitor;
- Keetch-Byram dehydration indicator;
- soil moisture.
“Most areas of the West, Plains, and Texas remain dry, with areas of extreme to exceptional drought across the southwestern United States. Drought developed across southwestern Alaska and spread or increased in intensity across the Southeast and Hawaii. Temperatures were higher than normal across the stratum. The southern United States and the plains, with temperatures close to below normal across the northwestern United States and the northeast.
Climate projections indicate that there will likely be less than normal precipitation across much of the plains across the central Rocky Mountains to the inland Pacific Northwest, and temperatures likely to be above normal across much of the contiguous United States (CONUS) during the summer . The strong North American monsoon is expected to continue from July to August across the southwest and parts of the broader Four Corners region. Alaska is likely to remain warm, with near-normal rainfall likely during the summer.
“Big above-normal fires are expected in the southern plains through October, spreading across Texas, and from lower to mid-Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio Valleys by fall. Much of the central and northern high plains, including the Black Hills, are likely to have , Higher-than-normal potential during summer The Southwest, Southern Great Basin and Colorado Rockies are back to near-normal potential.
Southwestern, south-central, and interior Alaska will have higher-than-normal fire potential during August, although parts of southwestern Alaska will likely return to nearly normal during August. A lot of the Sierras and the coast of California will have significant higher-than-normal potential by August, continuing through September. California’s wind-exposed offshore areas are likely to retain a higher than natural potential in October as well. Along and east of the Cascades Range in much of western and northern Great Basin, it is expected to have higher-than-normal potential this summer due to above-normal soft fuel loading and long-term drought, with potential to increase in southwestern Oregon by August. The Leeward sides of the Hawaiian Islands will have higher-than-normal potential through October due to the ongoing drought and enhanced trade winds likely.”
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