Just how bad will California’s summer wildfire season be?

The consensus among experts is that in recent years there will be more than average fire activity in the next few months in hot weather and prolonged dry seasons. According to the US Drought Monitor, all areas of California are experiencing severe or severe drought.

Brent Water, a meteorologist at the US Forest Service’s Coordination Center in Redding Caliph, said: – Normal grass seed. That’s a big driver.

This year’s crop was healthy when weak winds brought light rains to northern California in May and June. Although the systems prevented a rapid fire in northern California in June, they did not provide enough rain to quell the state’s drought. In addition, they helped the grass to grow. When the state normally has no or very little rain, those grasses dry up quickly in the summer and heat events are common, creating fuel for wildfires.

This year’s ice pack is aggravating the situation. In a good year, in the spring a strong snow pack is spread over Sierra Nevada, and in the summer it melts and feeds the landscape. When the ground and vegetation are wet, fires do not spread quickly. This year, when the ice pack began with a historic October storm and a wet start in December, it was unusually dry from January to March, resulting in below-average snowfall. As we enter winter, there will be little snow in Sierra Nevada this year, with the northern part of the day at 16% and the central and southern areas at 0%, according to the California Department of Water Resources.

During the summer, if there is no gradual melting of the snow, trees and shrubs will dry out more quickly and some will die. Trees that do not get enough water can be stressful and may be more susceptible to beetle attacks. “As of 2010, an estimated 129 million trees have died in California’s national forests due to climate change, unpredictable droughts, beetle infestation, and tree densities,” the U.S. Forest Service said in a statement.

While there may be some good news, the peak fires season may be heavier than average, but there is a chance that it will not be as bad as last year’s record or as bad as 2020, according to a study by the National Center for Meteorology. In winter and spring, the scientists analyzed rainforests, temperatures, droughts, and other climatic conditions in the West.

“Our study shows that past winter and spring weather conditions can be more than 50% year-to-year variability and the overall trend in summer fires,” said study leader Ronnie Abolfia-Rosenzweig. According to a researcher at the center. “This gives us the ability to predict fire activity before the summer season begins.”

Researchers predict that this summer’s fires will burn between 1.9 and 5.3 million acres in the West, a total of 3.8 million acres. Although Although much smaller than the 8.7 million hectares burned in 2020, this represents the eighth-largest burn since 1984, a continuation of long-term conflict, the study said.

According to the study, the “professional estimate” is that the future will be tough – but not as bad as 2020. In August, when a hurricane caught fire across California, or last year Dixi Fire grew to 963,309 acres, it became the second largest wildfire in government history.

Long-term weather forecasts may be lower in recent years, according to Watcher, and this could help reduce the risk of wildfires.

“This summer, heatwave events are the same as in previous years and are not expected to last long,” he said. “We’ve seen a lot of overheating warnings over the next 4 to 5 years. I expect this to be a little more limited this year.”

This point was reinforced during the recent wildfires at the National Agency for Fire in Boys from June to September. “Drought conditions are expected to worsen in the summer, but it may not be as spectacular compared to the past two years due to its short-term sustainability,” said more than half a dozen government agencies. Bureau of Land Administration and U.S. Forest Service. “In any case, the moisture content of dead fuels is often higher than in unusually dry and extreme dry conditions, especially off the coast. Live fuels continue through August and September.

Although some factors that influence the timing of a fire are easy to predict, the so-called “extreme weather” is difficult to identify, such as lightning strikes and hurricanes.

“Any type of lightning can cause problems, especially if it is a dry species, especially if it is a wet and dry mixture.”